THGLondon Stock Exchange
THG
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The structural argument is the binding one
THG has always been two arguments running at once. One is operational, about whether the divisions can generate cash on their own. The other is structural, about governance and capital allocation, and whether the people running it are pointed the same way as minority holders.
My view is that the structural one binds. Operational recovery gets priced in as it arrives, because it is legible and it shows up in the numbers. Governance gets ignored right up until it is the only thing that matters, and then it is priced all at once. That asymmetry is the whole reason to hold the two apart rather than netting them off into a single view on the shares.
Plenty of people who have followed this longer than I have take the opposite line, and think the cash question settles everything and the rest is noise. Say so if that is you.
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Key questions
Can THG demonstrate a sustainable path to profitability and free cash flow generation across its Beauty and Nutrition divisions? How well do the group's governance structure and capital allocation decisions align management's interests with those of minority shareholders?
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